Setting Realistic Weight Loss Goals

AFS Education

Have you ever tried a diet?

Yeah, you – I’m talking to you!

Have you ever tried a diet?

Oh, don’t worry – you don’t have to tell me, because I already know the answer. Of course you have! We all have.

So what have you tried?

Atkins?

Zone?

South Beach?

HCG?

Medical Weight Loss?

How about the “cookie diet” – have you tried that?

Really, though, it doesn’t matter what you’ve tried, because all diets have one thing in common – THEY DON’T WORK!

If there’s one common denominator that all “diet” systems have, it’s that they’re not realistic long-term (in fact, some of them can even be dangerous long-term). How do we know this? Well, first of all, there are hundreds of peer-reviewed journal articles that suggest diets don’t work (statistics show that the failure rate is somewhere around 98%). Then, there’s the rampant obesity epidemic that continues to plague our nation; apparently our 30 billion dollar per year “diet” industry hasn’t put much of a dent in that. Finally, there’s always common sense; like your mom always said, “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

So does this mean that those of us who are overweight are doomed? No, certainly not – there are some good systems out there that preach subtle behavior change, conscious awareness of food consumed, and lifestyle-based eating. But, those systems aren’t sexy, so they don’t sell. There are no celebrity endorsements. No crazy before and after pictures. No outrageous claims about losing “30 pounds in 30 days for 30 dollars!” No one wants to hear “lose two pounds per week!” or “progressively lose that stubborn belly fat!”

Ask yourself this: if there were two ads right next to each other in a magazine, one that said “lose 30 pounds in 30 days,” and another that said “lose 8 pounds in 30 days,” which program are you more likely to try? You probably wouldn’t be all that enticed by the 8-pound ad, but the sad fact is that that is the one that’s NOT lying to you.

No one wants to hear the reality of losing weight. Everyone wants it now, now, now, but that’s just not realistic. How long did it take for you to put on your weight?

6 months?

12 months?

2 years?

5 years?

Your entire adult life?

With that in mind, it isn’t realistic to expect the weight that took so long to be gained to magically disappear overnight. The problem, though, is that everywhere we look, we are led to believe otherwise. Look at television shows like The Biggest Loser, infomercials for P90x, and before and after ads for dietary supplements – they all make you think losing weight is fast, fun, easy, and quick. But, if that was the case, I don’t think nearly two-thirds of the American public would be classified as overweight or obese.

So, aside from ranting and raving about what DOESN’T seem to work, what is the point here? The point is that one of the primary reasons people fail to achieve their weight loss goals is because they don’t know what a realistic goal is. Any process you enter with unrealistic expectations is doomed to fail from the outset. So, if you expect to lose 10 pounds in your first two weeks of exercise (and actually keep it off), and you lose only 2 pounds, you might view yourself as having failed and lose motivation to continue exercising.

But what if I told you that, based on existing scientific evidence, you might only lose a pound that first week (and, in fact, in some cases you might not lose any weight at all, or even gain a little weight) – what would you say then? Well, you might not be happy, but at least you’d have an honest, evidence-based expectation. And, you would understand that you did, in fact, succeed when you lost 2 pounds in the first two weeks of your exercise program.

So, what can you expect in terms of weight loss and fat loss if you implement a lifestyle-based diet and exercise program? Based on data analysis conducted on our client population, as well as peer-reviewed research, here are some thoughts that might give you a little more realistic idea of how long it will take to reach your goals:

 

• There is a difference between scale weight and body fat. Weight is comprised of both lean and fat tissue. Fat tissue is just fat, nothing more. It’s not dense, not metabolically active, and most of it is stored underneath the skin. Essentially, it’s the tissue we want to get rid of. Lean tissue is everything non-fat in the body. It includes muscles, bones, organs, hair, skin, nails, and fluids – all the living, breathing, working (non-fat) tissue of the body. It’s dense, it’s tone, it’s firm, and it’s metabolically active. This is the tissue we want to keep (or maybe even increase). In fact, when someone says they want to “tone up,” quantifiably speaking, they want to lose fat and gain lean tissue (in the form of muscle). So, when your scale weight changes, it could be because your body fat has changed or your lean mass has changed. How do you know which has happened? You get a body fat measurement done. You figure out how much fat you have on your body and how much you need to lose. From there, you can begin to set realistic goals.
• Weight gain may happen initially with the onset of higher intensity exercise. Don’t worry, though: I don’t mean that you’ll gain fat; I mean that your lean tissue will increase. Within the first week of exercise, it’s not uncommon for someone to gain one or more pounds of non-muscle lean mass. This weight is generally fluid in the form of: (1) an increase in your blood plasma to make the heart pump better, (2) stored energy (carbohydrate) in your muscles, and/or (3) swelling in your muscles in response to the trauma of novel exercise. Now, don’t fear this weight gain – it is somewhat transient, and will eventually go away, but it can mask some fat pounds lost on the scale initially, so don’t be discouraged.
• The average rate of change in body fat is between 1-1.5 pounds per week for women, and 1.5-2 pounds per week for men. This corresponds to somewhere between 0.5-1.5 absolute percent body fat lost per week. Although this is a great rate of change, it might be less than you expect. Unfortunately, if you try to lose fat any faster than this, you end up (1) losing a lot of muscle in the process, and (2) gaining it all back and more at the end of the day.
• The average female client starts with us (at AFS) around 34% body fat; the average male at about 27%. For these “average” clients, it will normally take 12-16 weeks to get to a “healthy” percentage of body fat (22-25% women, 16-19% men). Then, it will take another 12-14 weeks to get to a “lean or athletic” percentage of body fat (18-20% women, 10-12% men).

Since a fair amount of behavior modification takes place to achieve and maintain weight loss, the time period above is necessary for both lasting physical and mental change. Not only do these behaviors need to be fostered, but they also need to be sustained. In other words, it will likely take a couple of months of really focusing on what helped you achieve the weight loss to solidify those behaviors.

Hopefully I haven’t discouraged you, but it is vitally important to your long-term success that you set realistic expectations. If you consider the time-frames I suggested above and do the math, you’ll see that the “average” person who begins an exercise program for weight loss will need to commit to 10-12 months before the goals are achieved. But, it’s not like a magic switch gets flipped at the one-year mark, and all of a sudden you look the way you want to. You’re going to see steady, subtle, and progressive changes throughout the process. In fact, you’ll start looking better, and your clothes will start fitting better, within the first month. But, reaching your long-term goals will take some time. Knowing this, give yourself permission to take time to achieve your weight loss goals – not only are you worth it, but it’s the only way it will work!

Terry Lobb

I love the AFS No Fad Diet. It’s an awesome visual to follow before taking that bite!!!

Tricia Nault

I think this is great information to have when you start attending AFS. I admit when I first started here as a client almost two years ago, I did get very discouraged that the scale wasn't changing fast enough, that I wasn't losing weight as fast as I wanted. But I always had to tell myself that it took years to get to my highest weight and the level of non-fitness I was at, so it didn't make sense that any weight I lost quickly would stay off. And I'd already proven that with all the "diets" I tried. Of course nothing ever lasted, and I always gained the weight back plus some. But now, since coming here and actually taking the time needed to change my bad habits, I have been much more successful. It's been a long road, but the weight I've lost has not come back, nor do I think it will, because I have changed habits versus just restricting my food intake. Having more realistic expectations for myself and realistic goals is making much more of a difference.

Sawyer Paull-Baird

Hey @Tricia Nault , thanks for sharing your story, there is a lot there to learn from I think. To point out a few:

1) Habits versus rules

Sticking to a strict set of dietary rules is appealing because it is black and white, and generally leads to fast initial results. The problem though is that those rules are rarely if ever maintainable over months and years, and the proverbial weight "and then some" comes back. Changing your habits is much less sexy, more difficult, and slower, however it is really the only thing that is going to result in lasting change. It is important to realize that people don't have trouble LOSING weight for the most part (especially the first couple of attempts), they have trouble KEEPING it off.. and the more times you regain lost weight, subsequent attempts become more and more challenging due to some of the metabolic changes that occur with yo-yo dieting.

2) "Diets" versus lifestyle

I actually think the word "diet" in terms of "I am going on a diet" should be struck from the vocabulary of anyone in the health/fitness industry (or just the world in general- ha!). "Diet" implies a short term change, and typically also implies a strict set of rules to follow. Diets don't work... and actually generally do more harm than good over the long run for many people (both psychologically and physiologically). Small, incremental lifestyle changes (habits) do work. They again, just take longer, and are less easily marketable. That said, even though it takes longer in the short term, it is actually the FASTEST way to lose weight, as you are less likely to gain back that same weight in the future, then have to try to lose it again.

3) Realistic expectations

In my experience, perfectionism and all-or-nothing thinking are probably in the top 2-3 in regards to mindsets that inhibit success in regards to health and fitness. Being realistic with oneself.. kind to oneself.. patient.. these are basically prerequisites to successful weight loss in my opinion.

Thanks for sharing your story, Tricia. Keep on making positive change in your life and in others'!

Candice Garlow

Hello 😊,

I’m interested in knowing what the good systems are? Thank you!

"So does this mean that those of us who are overweight are doomed? No, certainly not – there are some good systems out there that preach subtle behavior change, conscious awareness of food consumed, and lifestyle-based eating. But, those systems aren’t sexy, so they don’t sell. There are no celebrity endorsements. No crazy before and after pictures. No outrageous claims about losing “30 pounds in 30 days for 30 dollars!” No one wants to hear “lose two pounds per week!” or “progressively lose that stubborn belly fat!”"

Sawyer Paull-Baird

Hey @Candice Garlow -

In regards to identifying the good "systems", I think you'd need to work with a coach, either your FP or @Bella Diaz (our RD) to determine what the best system is for YOU.

In reality, the best "system" for each individual is going to be quite different, and actually likely a combination of pieces of multiple different philosophies.

I would actually encourage everyone to move away from the mindset of trying to find a "system" and more to a mindset of "what small changes can I make today to incrementally improve my nutrition?". Then, from there.. "what's another small change I can make?"... and another.. and another... This process is going to look different for everyone, and having a coach along with you on the journey can be very helpful.

Again, as the article states, that's not as sexy as "follow these 5 rules and lose 50 lbs in 16 weeks"... BUT, it is the correct way to sustain the results long term.

I know the article states that there are good systems out there, and there ARE.. But that's more in reference to there being good health coaches, RDs etc. that are working really hard to help people, and less stating that there are specific diets out there we'd universally recommend.

I know I didn't answer the exact question you posed, but I hope it is helpful nonetheless.

Tricia Nault

I'm really starting to get on the "small changes" bandwagon, which is a big change for me, and a long road to get there. I think what makes it so hard is that everyone is so used to having everything "right now." There's no waiting for anything. But weight loss and other fitness goals can only be achieved by making one small change at a time, being patient and consistent enough to let that change turn into a habit, and then adding another small change. And building each small change on top of each other. It takes time, and that's what's so hard about sticking to it. You want to see results!

The good news is that I am seeing results now. I still get impatient, and I still have more I want to achieve. But I know it will happen doing it the right way.

Mike Stack

@Tricia Nault your perspective is very correct on this, small incremental changes, day-by-day will always bring about long-term, sustainable results. One thing that I do want to draw your focus to is expanding your definition of "results" to include other improvements in your health and fitness. I'd encourage you to keep your weight loss goal (whatever that may be), but I'd add some other goals to it that are more fitness and health based. It becomes easy to lose patience when the only goal is weight loss. If you can expand your goals to other aspects of health and fitness I think you will find your sense of motivation and achievement will increase quite significantly. I think a good take home message for anyone who looking to lose weight is to focus less on that and more about getting healthier and more fit. When do that the weight loss comes.

Mike Stack

@Candice Garlow, I want to piggyback on what @Sawyer Paull-Baird said above. As Sawyer said the "you" part is the most important element of any effective nutrition system. There is no "one size fits all" approach to nutrition, and this is something people lose sight of (the media helps us lose sight of this very fast, and very intentionally in fact). The best system you can develop is one that fits into your lifestyle, and no one knows your lifestyle better than you. I realize that my answer is a little abstract, so let me give you some more direction and things to consider in terms of developing your own system. Give this a try and let us know what you think:

1) Take a week and log everything you eat (without changing how you eat and without making judgements on it), just log whatever it is.

2) Look back at the end of the week and ask yourself what items you can eliminate from your diet that are not a fruit, vegetable or a protein source. Try to find 2-3 items per day you eat consistently that you'd be willing to remove.

3) Start with the item (one item) you're most willing to give up and remove it (without adding any food in it's place, remember you're trying to create a calorie deficit to lose fat). Try to keep it out for one week. If you're successful then go to item two and remove that (again, without adding anything). Then progress to item three.

4) Step #3 can keep being repeated over and over again to progressive remove "unhealthy" food (a term I don't like, but I'll use for simplicity sake) from your diet. In my experience most of us that want to lose weight have at least 4-6 food items we can eliminate from our diet. That amount of elimination can amount to 1000-1500 calories per day, which can result in significant fat loss.

This might seem like an oversimplification on my part, but in fact it's just a smart and progressive approach to behavior change. I've used this method many times to help people lose a significant amount of weight. So often people start a diet to lose weight and make so many changes at once they can't sustain them. I'd rather be pragmatic and start with where you're at (literally) with your current diet. Once you've determined what you can remove and you do it progressively week-after-week, you find it's easier to sustain those behaviors because they become habits (rather than rigid rules you have to follow when you're "dieting").

Now there are certainly other approaches and this can get a lot more nuanced. I want to reiterate what Sawyer said, guidance from an registered dietician like @Bella Diaz can be helpful in developing a more specific plan. Until then using a framework like this can be a very healthy and sustainable way to start making lifestyle-based changes to your diet and start losing weight.

Tricia Nault

@Mike Stack actually I did exactly that! My goal the past 6 weeks was to decrease body fat and increase muscle mass. I accomplished it in a big way, and lo and behold, more weight came off with it. Things have greatly improved with my motivation since I've changed my priorities from just losing weight to progressively increase the weights I use, removing sugar from my diet and my new one: I want to do a pull-up! :)

Heidi Morris

Everytime I do FS I feel like by now I should look like Simone Biles.

However, despite the fact I am not quite there, I try to remember the part of my body that REALLY matters is what I can not see. How is my heart functioning? My liver, my kidneys? How's my endurance improving? My mental stability? All of those are WAAAAAAY more valuable than fitting into a smaller pair of jeans.

I definitely still want to see a lower number on the scale like everyone else.

But then again, I just figure too, I'd hate to make other people jealous of me if I got too perfect LOL.

Mike Stack

@Tricia Nault, that's awesome. I love that variety in goals. Keep that up. If you can keep setting new performance and health goals you'll continue to see the body composition improvements come. Health, fitness, and performance improvements always precede body composition improvements so if you focus on those you'll notice much less stress around focusing on weight loss, and (as you said) lo and behold the weight loss comes! Keep up the good work.

Mike Stack

@Heidi Morris, I'm curious if you have any ways you're quantifiably looking at how your performance or level of health are improving? Do you use any sort of self-fitness test or any kind of health measures from your doctor (blood draws, physicals, etc.)? Just curious as I said. I'm always interested in the different ways people attempt to use to quantify their improvement in health and fitness.